Assumptions drive action.
Assumptions can be recognized or invisible.
Assumptions can be right, wrong, or anywhere in between.
Over time assumptions can atrophy, and new ones can arise.
To be effective drivers of action, assumptions must simplify and distort.
Welcome to our blog series that is dedicated to exploring these assertions. Our intent is to cultivate a community of interest. Our hope is that a loose coalition will form through this blog, and through other channels, that will enrich the wisdom that evaluators and designers bring to their work. Please join us.
| Jonny Morell | jamorell@jamorell.com |
| Apollo Nkwake | nkwake@gmail.com |
| Guy Sharrock | Guy.Sharrock@crs.org |
Evaluation Uncertainty 
Look forward to it, A lot of useless crap has been written about assumptions over the years, and if you’ve ever spent any time reading the assumptions column of LogFrames you realise just how awful people’s understanding is of what they are, how to identify important ones and what to do about them. I’m a bit of a fan of Strategic Assumption Surfacing and Testing (SAST) developed by Mitrof, and Assumption Based Planning developed by the Rand Corporation. But both are ancient. Nothing wrong with that, but they both predate the modern complexity discourse, so looking forward to seeing what insights you folks are going to bring.