The graphic superimposes a chessboard on a random walk. It symbolizes a core challenge in evaluation. The Chessboard Program outcomes are predictable in the commonsense definition of predictability.“If I provide service X, outcome A will occur.” That statement is a model: X-->A, and it is the foundation of almost every evaluation model I have seen. … Continue reading What Does the Graphic Header say About Evaluation?
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Four facets of AEA. Four questions. No answers provided.
A friend of mind and I were discussing the nature of AEA. I have come to quite a few conclusions about this, but my current thinking is more in the way of questions than answers. As I see it, what’s needed is an exploration of four questions. Where does the evaluation that we do fit … Continue reading Four facets of AEA. Four questions. No answers provided.
Complexity as a Trend in Evaluation: Similarities and Differences with Classical Statistics
In recent years, the evaluation community has been looking to “complexity” as a source for addressing these difficulties.
A Complex System View of Technology Acquisition Choice
I am involved in a project that involves helping people make a single choice among multiple technologies. They must commit to one, so there is no waffling. This is one more of many such exercises that I have been involved in over the course of my career, and I have never been fully satisfied with any of them. On an intuitive level, everyone knows they cannot make the best choice, but everyone thinks that they should be able to. I finally figured out why they cannot. I don’t mean that people are not smart enough. I mean that it is impossible. The behavior of complex systems makes it impossible.
Simulation Using Events and Goals – A New Approach to Agent-based Modeling
The computer science of SCAMP drew me in, but what really interested me was its novel approach to modeling social phenomena. SCAMP looks at network-based phenomena in ways that traditional networking does not.
Social Causality with Agents using Multiple Perspectives: A Novel Approach to Understanding Network-based Social Phenomena
SCAMP is a network-based scenario-simulation methodology whose runs can reveal new understanding about known topics of research, and also, reveal hitherto unrealized research questions. SCAMP has this capacity because it treats networks in novel ways.
Development Trajectories, Complexity Thinking and Theories of Change
This article builds on a previous contribution to this blog identifying a set of complex adaptive systems that are particularly useful in the formulation of theories of change (TOCs).
Applied Complexity: Theory and Practice of Human Systems Dynamics
My particular take on complexity and systems is called human systems dynamics (HSD). It is a field of theory and practice that applies principles of complex adaptive systems to help people see, understand, and influence emergent patterns in complex human systems.
Creating change in complex systems: the role of phase space
In this piece I introduce the concept of phase space (interchangeable with term ‘state space’). Within a Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) understanding of how systems change over time, I argue that phase space is important for designing interventions within a CAS.
Applying the complexity concept of “sensitive dependence” to understanding how a program works
Jonathan (Jonny) A Morell President, 4.669… Evaluation and Planning jamorell@jamorell.com blog YouTube This is the first of what I hope will be many posts that show how specific constructs from complexity science can be useful for doing evaluation. There will only be many posts if others contribute. Please do. What complex behavior is this post … Continue reading Applying the complexity concept of “sensitive dependence” to understanding how a program works
