Evaluation Uncertainty

March 20, 2011May 13, 2019 jamorell Program Sustainability, Replication and Scale-up

Is it useful to think of “fidelity” in terms of “attractors?”

I have been toying with an idea about thinking of "fidelity" in terms of "attractors" as they are cast in complex adaptive systems (CAS).

March 12, 2011May 13, 2019 jamorell Evaluation as a Discipline and a Profession, Unintended consequences

Surprise in Evaluation: Values and Valuing as Expressed in Political Ideology, Program Theory, Metrics, and Methodology (AEA 2011 – Think Tank Proposal)

Submitted by Jonny Morell Joanne Farley Tarek Azzam Abstract: How does political ideology affect program theories, methodologies, and metrics? Participants will be randomly assigned to groups, and asked to sketch an evaluation based on one of three positions. 1) Government has an obligation to alleviate social inequities and thereby promote the public good. 2) Government’s … Continue reading Surprise in Evaluation: Values and Valuing as Expressed in Political Ideology, Program Theory, Metrics, and Methodology (AEA 2011 – Think Tank Proposal)

March 8, 2011May 13, 2019 jamorell System Perspectives, Unintended consequences

Miscellaneous thoughts on complexity in Evaluation

How do concepts of "complexity" play in Evaluation?

February 11, 2011May 28, 2019 jamorell Evaluation as a Discipline and a Profession, Program Theory and Program Logic

AEA Session 2011 Development of a session on how ideology affects evaluation design

A discussion space for people interested in a session at AEA 2011 on how political ideology affects evaluation design.

January 17, 2011May 13, 2019 jamorell Unintended consequences

Empirical test of Jonny’s beliefs about evaluation surprise

Technical section of proposal to the National Science Foundation

November 16, 2010May 13, 2019 jamorell Evaluation as a Discipline and a Profession, Unintended consequences

Unexpected program outcomes as a function of the ideologies driving an evaluation – Some questions for the AEA

I want to spark a discussion of what evaluation might look like if it were practiced by people who were working from different ideological frameworks.

November 16, 2010May 13, 2019 jamorell Program Theory and Program Logic

Looking for opinions about content — AEA workshop: Logic Models – Beyond the Traditional View: Metrics, Methods, Expected and Unexpected Change

The range of material we can cover during the workshop is much broader than time will allow. Please look through the slides (see attachment) and post your suggestions for priorities.

November 7, 2010May 13, 2019 jamorell Program Theory and Program Logic

Dealing with variability

As a result of some back and forth with members of AEA's Systems TIG, I have been thinking about the idea that over and above specific activities in any one organization, what's also important is its capacity to deal with variability.

November 1, 2010May 13, 2019 jamorell Miscenaneous

Jonny Morell’s very brief summary of his work on evaluation uncertainty

People have been asking me if I could briefly summarize my work on evaluation in the face of uncertainty. It took me a while, but I finally came up with the following.

October 13, 2010May 13, 2019 jamorell Program Theory and Program Logic

Looking for opinions about content — AEA workshop: Logic Models – Beyond the Traditional View: Metrics, Methods, Expected and Unexpected Change

Asking for opinions about content for AEA logic model workshop.

Eat dessert first. Life is uncertain.
Good advice. True observation.

Any yet, we must soldier on, trying to predict what will happen and to explain why things work out as they do. My professional life has grappled with prediction and explanation through the lens of program evaluation. I have come to appreciate how much, and how little, evaluation can tell us. Sometimes it is “much”. Sometime is “little”. Sometimes it is “much” and “little” at the same time. This blog expresses my engagement with what evaluation can do, what it cannot do, what it should do, and what it should not do. About the graphic.