Recently I was asked to prepare a brief presentation for people in the prediction business – planners and evaluators whose work was preoccupied with some form of the question: If I do this, what will happen? The audience brought a traditional if > then logic to the way they answered this question. They knew that … Continue reading Two Complexity Constructs to Reorient the Logic of Planning and Evaluation
Project Schedules, Program Models and Complexity: Linking Across Three Domains
PDF version: Schedules_logic_models_complexity_Morell_2_18_22 In 2018 I published an article making the case for using project schedules (in the form of PERT and Gantt charts) as logic models (Morell, 2018).[2] I offered two reasons for doing so. Using a project schedule as a logic model can reveal unique insight. Because planners and managers pay more attention … Continue reading Project Schedules, Program Models and Complexity: Linking Across Three Domains
How Much Diverse Intellectual Input Should Be Included When Planning an Evaluation? (Revised)
How Much Diverse Intellectual Input Should Be Included When Planning an Evaluation? I addressed this question some time ago in my book on unintended consequences. It’s time to revisit the question. What is the Optimal Amount of Diverse Opinion? My interest in this question stems from an article I recently read in Foreign Affairs about … Continue reading How Much Diverse Intellectual Input Should Be Included When Planning an Evaluation? (Revised)
A Complexity-based Plan for Evaluating Transformation
Jonathan A. Morelljamorell@jamorell.com This is the abstract of a paper I have in draft form. I'm looking for critique on any or all parts of it. If you are interested please send me email and I'll send you a copy. Thanks in advance to all. Abstract This article presents a case for more rigorous application … Continue reading A Complexity-based Plan for Evaluating Transformation
What Does the Graphic Header say About Evaluation?
The graphic superimposes a chessboard on a random walk. It symbolizes a core challenge in evaluation. The Chessboard Program outcomes are predictable in the commonsense definition of predictability.“If I provide service X, outcome A will occur.” That statement is a model: X-->A, and it is the foundation of almost every evaluation model I have seen. … Continue reading What Does the Graphic Header say About Evaluation?
A Complexity-based Meta-theory of Action for Transformation to a Green Energy Future
This chapter draws from complexity science to present a metatheory of transformation that can be applied to discrete theories of change that are constructed to guide model building, methodology, and data interpretation for the evaluation of individual change efforts.
AEA Professional development workshop on using complexity in evaluation
Material for AEA Professional development workshop on using complexity in evaluation
Workshop: Logic Models — Beyond the Traditional View
We will move beyond the traditional view of logic models to examine their applicability, value, and relatability to attendees’ experiences.
Joint Optimization of Uncorrelated Outcomes: Part 6 of 6 Posts on Evaluation, Complex Behavior, and Themes in Complexity Science
Common Introduction to all 6 Posts History and Context These blog posts are an extension of my efforts to convince evaluators to shift their focus from complex systems to specific behaviors of complex systems. We need to make this switch because there is no practical way to apply the notion of a “complex system” to … Continue reading Joint Optimization of Uncorrelated Outcomes: Part 6 of 6 Posts on Evaluation, Complex Behavior, and Themes in Complexity Science
Unspecifiable Outcome Chains: Part 4 of 6 Posts on Evaluation, Complex Behavior, and Themes in Complexity Science
Common Introduction to all 6 Posts History and Context These blog posts are an extension of my efforts to convince evaluators to shift their focus from complex systems to specific behaviors of complex systems. We need to make this switch because there is no practical way to apply the notion of a “complex system” to … Continue reading Unspecifiable Outcome Chains: Part 4 of 6 Posts on Evaluation, Complex Behavior, and Themes in Complexity Science
Evaluation Uncertainty 