Practical Ways to use Complexity to do Evaluation – Page 4

April 13, 2013May 13, 2019 jamorell Practical Ways to use Complexity to do Evaluation, Program Theory and Program Logic

Power Law Versus Symmetrical Distributions — Implications for Policy Recommendations

I’d bet that when people look at the results of an evaluation they think in terms of normal, or at least symmetrical distributions. They do not envision power law

Eat dessert first. Life is uncertain.
Good advice. True observation.

Any yet, we must soldier on, trying to predict what will happen and to explain why things work out as they do. My professional life has grappled with prediction and explanation through the lens of program evaluation. I have come to appreciate how much, and how little, evaluation can tell us. Sometimes it is “much”. Sometime is “little”. Sometimes it is “much” and “little” at the same time. This blog expresses my engagement with what evaluation can do, what it cannot do, what it should do, and what it should not do. About the graphic.