I see two genre of futuring. One is based on the belief that however uncertainly, we can envision a future and plan to get there. I call this the “Locksley Hall” approach, after a line in Tennyson’s poem Locksley Hall “For I dipt into the future, far as human eye could see, / Saw the Vision of the world, and all the wonder that would be.” The second genre relies on the behavior of complex systems and is much less sanguine about futuring. We plan; God laughs.
Evaluating Systems as Systems and Using that Knowledge to Inform Program Evaluation
There is much talk about how our programs are (or should be) thought of in terms of systems, and quite a bit of progress is being made toward that end. But there is a difference between: • evaluating programs in terms of systems, and • evaluating the systems themselves, i.e. abstracting the system structure from the details of a program. The purpose of this document is to take a stab at the latter. Why bother? For two reasons. First, Understanding the system that underlies a program will help us understand the program. Second, similar systems structures may indicate similarities across seemingly disparate programs.
Workshop: Drawing from Complexity Science to do Evaluation.
Slides for my AES Workshop: Application of Complexity Science to Evaluation are here. Topics I’ll cover are: Stability and instability in complex systems Talking to stakeholders about complex behavior Thinking in terms of the behavior of complex systems Pattern, predictability and how change happens as general themes. Methodologies we need to evaluate with respect to … Continue reading Workshop: Drawing from Complexity Science to do Evaluation.
Why does Evaluation need Complexity Science?
Why does Evaluation need Complexity Science? With implications for predictability, unpredictability, and methodology.
What Does Complexity Have to Say About the Learning Organization?
This is the text of a post I recently contributed to Evaltalk, the listserv of the American Evaluation Association. Organizational Learning as Adaptation I see organizational learning in terms of potential for adaptation in a changing environment. Environments can change rapidly or slowly, which makes for two different kinds of adaptive capacity. (I’m a big … Continue reading What Does Complexity Have to Say About the Learning Organization?
How Might Complexity Science Inform the Design and Conduct of Evaluation?
I’m considering pitching a special issue to an evaluation journal titled: How Might Complexity Science Inform the Design and Conduct of Evaluation? I have not committed to this project yet, but I do want to get the idea out there. I’m looking for: 1) critique of this idea, 2) specific topics to cover, 3) friendly … Continue reading How Might Complexity Science Inform the Design and Conduct of Evaluation?
Applying Complexity to Evaluation: Case Based on the GEF’s Resilient Food Systems Program: Integrated Landscape Management to Enhance Food Security and Ecosystem Resilience
Applying Complexity to Evaluation: Case Based on the GEF’s Resilient Food Systems Program: Integrated Landscape Management to Enhance Food Security and Ecosystem Resilience.
Coming Soon (Just don’t ask me exactly what “soon” means.) Applying Complexity to Evaluation: Cases Based on the Global Environment Facility’s Resilient Food Systems Program
Applying Complexity to Evaluation: Cases Based on the Global Environment Facility’s Resilient Food Systems Program
Development Trajectories, Complexity Thinking and Theories of Change
This article builds on a previous contribution to this blog identifying a set of complex adaptive systems that are particularly useful in the formulation of theories of change (TOCs).
Applied Complexity: Theory and Practice of Human Systems Dynamics
My particular take on complexity and systems is called human systems dynamics (HSD). It is a field of theory and practice that applies principles of complex adaptive systems to help people see, understand, and influence emergent patterns in complex human systems.
