Logic Models and Program Theory – Evaluation Uncertainty

Two Complexity Constructs to Reorient the Logic of Planning and Evaluation

Recently I was asked to prepare a brief presentation for people in the prediction business – planners and evaluators whose work was preoccupied with some form of the question: If I do this, what will happen? The audience brought a traditional if > then logic to the way they answered this question. They knew that … Continue reading Two Complexity Constructs to Reorient the Logic of Planning and Evaluation

February 18, 2022 jamorell Logic Models and Program Theory, Program Theory and Program Logic

Project Schedules, Program Models and Complexity: Linking Across Three Domains

PDF version: Schedules_logic_models_complexity_Morell_2_18_22 In 2018 I published an article making the case for using project schedules (in the form of PERT and Gantt charts) as logic models (Morell, 2018).[2] I offered two reasons for doing so. Using a project schedule as a logic model can reveal unique insight. Because planners and managers pay more attention … Continue reading Project Schedules, Program Models and Complexity: Linking Across Three Domains

January 25, 2022 jamorell Logic Models and Program Theory

My Principles for Constructing Logic Models

Of late there has been a lot of discussion on Evaltalk about logic models. This reminded me of the principles I rely on when I construct models. (For a dated, but still useful slide deck of my logic model workshop, go here.) What is a logic model good for? Logic models can be used to … Continue reading My Principles for Constructing Logic Models

November 4, 2019 jamorell Logic Models and Program Theory

Deriving Value from Models: Appreciating Partial Truth, Simplification, and Multiple Uses

I’m giving a talk at AEA 2019 in Minneapolis. The graphic summarizes the content. For the slides go here.

Eat dessert first. Life is uncertain.
Good advice. True observation.

Any yet, we must soldier on, trying to predict what will happen and to explain why things work out as they do. My professional life has grappled with prediction and explanation through the lens of program evaluation. I have come to appreciate how much, and how little, evaluation can tell us. Sometimes it is “much”. Sometime is “little”. Sometimes it is “much” and “little” at the same time. This blog expresses my engagement with what evaluation can do, what it cannot do, what it should do, and what it should not do. About the graphic.