My presentation at AEA 2025 is an Ignite Session that gives me all of five minutes to make the case that concepts from Ecology and Evolutionary Biology (EEB) can be valuable additions to how we think about how programs operate and what they accomplish. This is the one and only slide I am using.
Agent-based Modeling as an Evaluation Methodology
This paper presents our experiment in applying agent-based modeling to an evaluation scenario. It is based on a real evaluation, although we had to add quite a bit to flesh out the details needed to build the executable model. It’s a small-scale exercise that we hope will provide a sense of how agent-based modeling differs from equation-based modeling, and why the agent-based approach provides unique knowledge that would otherwise be unavailable.
Evaluations as Experiments in Systems: Value for Evaluation, Value for System Science
Evaluation is well stocked with knowledge about how to evaluate programs in terms of systems. Our stock is much less when it comes to evaluating the logic of the systems themselves. But separating the two and then bringing them back together can advance our understanding of both programs and systems. This assertion is illustrated with four examples: 1) causal chains, 2) stocks and flows, 3) network development and structure, and 4) complex systems with an attractor/equilibrium focus.
The Logic in Logic Models Part 2:
This is the second of two blog posts on the logic in logic models. (More will come in the future.)I discuss three levels of model specificity. The first is the siloed model that is specific only at a high level of abstraction (e.g., outputs --> outcomes). This model form lists, but does not specify relationships among elements within each high-level category. The second form is the “box and arrow” layout that is so common in evaluation. The third adds to the “box and arrow” form with additional information on relationships, e.g., designations of how strong or likely relationships are likely to be.
Six principles for applying complexity to the evaluation of transformation
Motivated by a survey I was asked to complete, I spent some time distilling my thoughts about how complexity can be applied to the evaluation of transformation. It came down to six principles. I have written a lot on this topic, so if anyone wants the gory details, just ask. Evaluators deal with complexity in … Continue reading Six principles for applying complexity to the evaluation of transformation
Evaluation Uncertainty 