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Evaluation Uncertainty

Evaluation Uncertainty

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Practical Ways to use Complexity to do Evaluation

Complexity in Evaluation: My Latest Thinking on What Matters

Installment One of an Occasional Series: Applied Complexity – Tools for Understanding Programs and their Consequences

Questions That Could Benefit from an Understanding of Complexity

Complexity-Informed Evaluation – An Exploration in Understanding Pattern, Predictability, and How Change Happens.

Two Complexity Constructs to Reorient the Logic of Planning and Evaluation

A Complexity-based Plan for Evaluating Transformation

Why do Evaluators Need to Understand Complexity?

A Complex System View of Technology Acquisition Choice

What does evaluation gain from thinking in alien terms? An argument for taking complexity and evolutionary biology seriously

AEA Professional development workshop on using complexity in evaluation

A Model for Evaluation of Transformation to a Green Energy Future

Converting an intellectual understanding of complexity into practical tools

Consequences of Small Change: Part 5 of 6 Posts on Evaluation, Complex Behavior, and Themes in Complexity Science

Unspecifiable Outcome Chains: Part 4 of 6 Posts on Evaluation, Complex Behavior, and Themes in Complexity Science

Networks and Fractals: Part 3 of 6 Posts on Evaluation, Complex Behavior, and Themes in Complexity Science

Power Law Distributions: Part 2 of 6 Posts on Evaluation, Complex Behavior, and Themes in Complexity Science

Emergence: Part 1 of 6 Posts on Evaluation, Complex Behavior, and Themes in Complexity Science

Applying Complexity to Make Practical Decisions About Evaluation

Case Study Example: Drawing on Complexity to do Hands-on Evaluation

Depicting Complexity in 2-D

Drawing on Complexity to do Hands-on Evaluation (Part 3) – Turning the Wrench

Drawing on Complexity to do Hands-on Evaluation (Part 2) – Complexity in Program Operation, Simplicity in Program Design

Drawing on Complexity to do Hands-on Evaluation (Part 1) – Complexity in Evaluation and in Studies in Complexity

Three Coming Blog Posts on Applying Complexity Behavior in Evaluation

Complexity is about stability and predictability

How to evaluate complex health interventions?

Simple, Complicated, Complex and Chaotic VS. Complexity Science. Jonny finally resolved his confusion

Power Law Versus Symmetrical Distributions — Implications for Policy Recommendations

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Eat dessert first. Life is uncertain.
Good advice. True observation.

Any yet, we must soldier on, trying to predict what will happen and to explain why things work out as they do. My professional life has grappled with prediction and explanation through the lens of program evaluation. I have come to appreciate how much, and how little, evaluation can tell us. Sometimes it is “much”. Sometime is “little”. Sometimes it is “much” and “little” at the same time. This blog expresses my engagement with what evaluation can do, what it cannot do, what it should do, and what it should not do. About the graphic.

Contributions to this blog are most welcome. If you are interested, please contact me at jamorell@jamorell.com.

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